Economists Do It With Models

Warning: “graphic” content…

Bookmark and Share
Billboard Hot 100 – Historical Predictability

The historical predictability metric reflects the average (i.e. mean) absolute difference between this week’s rank predicted based on past information and a rolling regression model and this week’s actual rank for each song. Note that the chart shows this average prediction error directly, but a higher predictability metric indicates a smaller average prediction error and vice versa.