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Billboard Hot 100 Indicators – Week of 3/26/2016

March 21st, 2016 · 5 Comments
Billboard · Music Biz

So what does popular music look like this week? You can see the current Billboard Hot 100 chart here, and you can see an overview of this data project here. The basic idea is as follows: below is a set of indicator metrics that help summarize the current state of the industry (or, more specifically, a part thereof) and show how it compares to previous weeks. (At least approximately, you can expect a post with updated data every Monday.)

What are presented here are known as “percentiles against history”- percentiles, you know, like you see with kids’ SAT scores, and against history, in comparison to the same metric at earlier periods in time. For example, an artist concentration index of 57 against a 5-year comparison group means that this week’s chart was more concentrated than 57 percent of the weeks in the last 5 years. (This ensures an interpretable metric between 0 and 100.) You can click on any of the index names to see a description and a graph of the overall weekly time series.


Comparison Group 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 2000-present
Artist Concentration 55 80 79 84 90
Song Age 25 34 40 66 77
Chart Entry 59 55 55 51 63
Shakeup 71 57 56 46 61
Predictability 39 42 42 46 45
Female Presence 69 45 34 22 23
Group Presence 14 5 3 1 1
Featured Artist Presence 4 1 1 3 13
Country Presence 73 46 34 57 51
Electronic Presence 2 6 12 45 65
Hip Hop Presence 43 81 86 64 46
Pop Presence 84 72 78 88 92
Rock Presence 14 6 4 2 1
World Presence 0 0 0 0 0

In addition, I’m working on a model that predicts next week’s rank based on a song’s chart history and other basic characteristics. (Yes, I know that a better model would pull in data from a variety of sources, but I’m curious as to how much can be done with this more narrow set of information.) So here are next week’s predictions:


Title Artist This Week Next Week Prediction
work rihanna featuring drake 1 1
love yourself justin bieber 2 3
stressed out twenty one pilots 3 6
my house flo rida 4 6
7 years lukas graham 5 2
pillowtalk zayn 6 5
me, myself & i g-eazy x bebe rexha 7 9
sorry justin bieber 8 14
cake by the ocean dnce 9 10
i took a pill in ibiza mike posner 10 8
no meghan trainor 11
hello adele 12 19
hands to myself selena gomez 13 14
roses the chainsmokers featuring rozes 14 17
one call away charlie puth 15 15
work from home fifth harmony featuring ty dolla $ign 16
stitches shawn mendes 17 24
down in the dm yo gotti featuring nicki minaj 18 20
don’t bryson tiller 19 22
piece by piece kelly clarkson 20
2 phones kevin gates 21 20
never forget you zara larsson & mnek 22 18
jumpman drake & future 23 28
the hills the weeknd 24 33
back to sleep chris brown 25 26
exchange bryson tiller 26 33
hotline bling drake 27 35
when we were young adele 28 32
summer sixteen drake 29 30
say it tory lanez 30 32
middle dj snake featuring bipolar sunshine 31 27
here alessia cara 32 39
oui jeremih 33 35
what do you mean? justin bieber 34 41
same old love selena gomez 35 43
in the night the weeknd 36 42
hide away daya 37 43
you should be here cole swindell 38 37
679 fetty wap featuring remy boyz 39 49
ex’s & oh’s elle king 40 48
die a happy man thomas rhett 41 46
like i’m gonna lose you meghan trainor featuring john legend 42 52
low life future featuring the weeknd 43 39
sugar robin schulz featuring francesco yates 44 43
can’t feel my face the weeknd 45 56
white iverson post malone 46 53
stand by you rachel platten 47 50
heartbeat carrie underwood 48 50
drunk on your love brett eldredge 49 48
let it go james bay 50 49
my church maren morris 51 50
something in the way you move ellie goulding 52 52
adventure of a lifetime coldplay 53 60
came here to forget blake shelton 54
beautiful drug zac brown band 55 56
best friend young thug 56 59
humble and kind tim mcgraw 57 55
youth troye sivan 58 56
really really kevin gates 59 57
confession florida georgia line 60 59
somewhere on a beach dierks bentley 61 59
snapback old dominion 62 59
don’t let me down the chainsmokers featuring daya 63 57
think of you chris young duet with cassadee pope 64 61
backroad song granger smith 65 66
try everything shakira 66
i like the sound of that rascal flatts 67 66
needed me rihanna 68 68
wild things alessia cara 69 64
home alone tonight luke bryan featuring karen fairchild 70 77
i know what you did last summer shawn mendes & camila cabello 71 79
panda desiigner 72 66
new romantics taylor swift 73
jimmy choo fetty wap 74 74
we went randy houser 75 79
the sound of silence disturbed 76 71
acquainted the weeknd 77 78
nobody to blame chris stapleton 78 80
untitled 02 l 06.23.2014. kendrick lamar 79
cut it o.t. genasis featuring young dolph 80 76
break on me. keith urban 81 88
might be luke nasty 82 82
american country love song jake owen 83
t-shirt thomas rhett 84
promise kid ink featuring fetty wap 85 84
little bit of you chase bryant 86 86
lost boy ruth b 87 88
mind reader dustin lynch 88 88
company justin bieber 89
untitled 07 l 2014 – 2016 kendrick lamar 90
watch out 2 chainz 91 92
cheap thrills sia featuring sean paul 92 91
that don’t sound like you lee brice 93 93
might not belly featuring the weeknd 94 91
saved ty dolla $ign featuring e-40 95 95
something new zendaya featuring chris brown 96
get ugly jason derulo 97 101
head over boots jon pardi 98
sorry not sorry bryson tiller 99 101
gotta lotta 2 chainz featuring lil wayne 100

(Predictions are blank for songs that don’t have the last 3 weeks of data.) In the future, I will also post the predictions versus the actual outcomes, and I will update the algorithm and hopefully get more accurate predictions over time…maybe at some point I can be the 538 for the music industry. =P

Tags: Billboard · Music Biz

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