During my fantasy football draft this year, I pointed out that I would totally be better at fantasy economics than I am at fantasy football. (In fairness, I was mainly bitter that I hadn’t really prepared for the draft and got stuck with Tony Romo as my starting quarterback.) It didn’t occur to me at the time that such a thing does, in fact, exist…sort of. I present to you the Harvard University Economics Department Nobel Betting Pool:
Every year in early October the Nobel Prize Committee honors a few select individuals who have made tremendous contributions to science and society. Shortly afterwards they hand out a prize in Economics. Continuing an annual tradition, the Harvard Department of Economics is hosting the world’s most accurate prediction market—The Nobel Pool. This year the prize is announced on Monday, October 10, 2011, so fire up STATA and send us your best estimate of the outcome.
HOW TO ENTER: Nominate who you think will win the 2011 Memorial Prize in Economics. Each name that you enter costs $1. You can also guess that no entrant will correctly guess the recipient(s). You can enter as many times for as many names you’d like.
In order to aid your betting, Thomson Reuters was kind enough to put together a list of likely Nobel candidates. I suppose this is helpful, though I feel I should warn you that, especially as of late, Nobel winners have been of the somewhat unexpected variety. (See Elinor Ostrom, for example.)
If you are feeling nerdy, post your guesses in the comments and I will place a bet on our behalf on October 9th. If we win, I’ll buy us something pretty. I’m a bit biased, since he was my professor, but if I had to pick from the Thomson Reuters list, my money would be on Jerry Hausman to get the ball into the end zone:
(As a random side note, I remember Prof. Hausman referring repeatedly to a “Manny Ortiz” when making a baseball reference in class, and I still don’t know whether he was purposely being funny or not.)